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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260715T120000
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UID:1965-1784116800-1784120400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Thomas M. Flaherty (presenter)\, Duy Trinh\, Changlip Kim\, and Olivia Hundley "Commerce and Campaigns: The Local Roots of Globalization  Messaging in US Presidential Speeches"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Issues like trade are often considered too technical and low salience to appear in national debates\, raising questions over the increasing supply of trade messages in campaign speeches. We develop a theoretical framework that explains where and when elites supply trade messages. Incumbent-party candidates avoid trade messages\, even where doing so would win local support\, while challengers use trade messages to strategically inform electorally competitive regions of trade’s local impacts. In aggregate\, a minority of geographies are supplied one-sided trade information campaigns. Using a within-candidate design\, we find empirical support using an original dataset covering all campaign rally speeches by presidential candidates from 2008 to 2024\, which we geocode and analyze with semi-supervised text methods to quantify where presidential campaigns emphasize trade relative to other issues. Our results are robust to exogenous sources of local interests\, pre-trends\, and placebo tests using immigration messages. The findings clarify the supply-side origins of the globalization backlash during the understudied campaign stage. \nModerator: Iain Osgood \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/thomas-m-flaherty/
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