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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20240417T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20240417T133000
DTSTAMP:20260421T032404
CREATED:20231222T083141Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240410T225912Z
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SUMMARY:Fiona Bare (Princeton) and Jeff Colgan (Brown\, presenter)\, "Has the Paris Climate Agreement Changed Corporate Behavior?"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Did firms shift resources to decarbonization in the wake of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change\, especially in industries where technology permits relatively cheap low- carbon options? The Paris Agreement marked a key moment in climate cooperation\, uniting countries towards a common goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees. However\, achieving this target is largely dependent on the behavior of corporate actors given that companies have been responsible for the lion’s share of greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper\, we examine whether the Paris Agreement changed corporate behavior among “convertible” industries\, focusing on automobile manufacturers. Political science literature points to two very different viewpoints on this question. Using five types of primary source materials such as earnings call transcripts and production reports\, we find quite limited evidence that the Paris Agreement shifted business strategy in the car sector. Overall\, the evidence should lead dispassionate analysts to revise downward their beliefs about Paris impact. Still\, the Paris Agreement might have created an enabling environment for more ambitious domestic policy in the long run. \nModerator: Maggie Peters \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/colgan-2024-04-17/
CATEGORIES:season10
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20240320T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20240320T133000
DTSTAMP:20260421T032404
CREATED:20231026T210446Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240318T213619Z
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SUMMARY:Carolina Moehlecke (Fundação Getulio Vargas\, presenter)\, Matias Spektor (FGV) and Guilherme Fasolin (Vanderbilt)\, "Drivers of Negative Perceptions of Chinese FDI: Experimental Evidence from Brazil"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Over the past decade\, China’s direct investment in Brazil has quadrupled\, making it one of the main investors in Latin America’s largest economy. This study examines Brazilians’ perceptions of this recent phenomenon. Using a conjoint experiment\, we find that Brazilians view Chinese investment as less advantageous compared to investments from Europe and the United States. We propose that this negative stance towards Chinese capital in Brazil arises from informational cues and frames around the topic. To test this overarching hypothesis\, we conduct a vignette survey experiment in Brazil with treatments highlighting worrisome outcomes of Chinese investment\, such as closer ties with a non-democratic country\, excessive economic dependency\, threats to sovereignty\, association with communism\, and the growing influence of Chinese culture in Brazilian society. The results indicate that all treatments except the influence of Chinese culture negatively affect Brazilians’ views on Chinese investment. Moreover\, we observe significant variation based on political self-identification\, with right-leaning individuals more affected by the treatments\, particularly those related to economic dependency and non-democracy. In contrast\, traditional drivers of preferences toward FDI do not produce significant effects. We employ text analysis of Congressional debates to provide further evidence that a top-down process shapes Brazilians’ attitudes toward Chinese FDI\, especially those stemming from the political right. By examining the micro foundations of Brazilians’ stances on Chinese FDI — a globalization feature whose benefits usually surpass the costs — we contribute to a growing literature that examines China’s ability and limits to influence the developing world amid great-power competition. \nLink to PDF \nModerator: Sarah Bauerle Danzman
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/moehleck-2024-03-20/
CATEGORIES:season10
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20240221T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20240221T133000
DTSTAMP:20260421T032404
CREATED:20231222T083642Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240214T182126Z
UID:1531-1708516800-1708522200@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Danielle Gilbert (Northwestern) and Lauren Prather (UCSD)\, "No Man Left Behind? Hostage Deservingness and the Politics of Hostage Recovery"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Kidnappings of soldiers\, journalists\, aid workers\, and other civilians by armed groups happen every day\, yet the politics of hostage recovery remains understudied. We develop an original theory about hostage deservingness that investigates how hostages’ personal responsibility for their own capture shapes public opinion and elite decision-making. We also examine the influence of traditional principles associated with hostage recovery and the costs of recovery. Our multi-method approach includes the use of survey experiments embedded in large national surveys of Americans and 22 interviews with current and former senior hostage recovery personnel. Across our experiments\, we find that when capture occurs under circumstances that suggest the hostage bears responsibility\, support for recovery decreases\, especially when costs are high. We further demonstrate that policymakers are similarly susceptible to notions of deservingness\, which affects all parts of the recovery process: internal debate among policymakers\, operational decisions\, and messaging to the public. \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/prather-2024-02-21/
CATEGORIES:season10
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20240117T093000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20240117T110000
DTSTAMP:20260421T032404
CREATED:20231221T140339Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240117T064113Z
UID:1524-1705483800-1705489200@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Tuuli-Anna Huikuri (Zurich) and Sujeong Shim (NYU Abu Dhabi)\, "Never Let Me Go: Exit Clauses in International Agreements"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Growing literature examines when states exit international institutions and why. International agreements\, however\, differ in how easy it is for signatory states to withdraw from them. Why do some states sign treaties that are difficult to terminate\, while others prefer treaties that are easy to withdraw from? We investigate this question in the context of international investment agreements\, exploiting variation in the flexibility of their exit clauses. We argue that the strictness of treaty commitments depends on the extent of domestic-level uncertainty and the severity of the international-level commitment problem.  Capital exporting democracies face a dilemma: they have to balance between constraining capital importers and maintaining flexibility for themselves. They resolve the dilemma by adjusting their demands for treaty-strictness based on the commitment problem of their partner states\, demanding exit clauses that require longer commitment periods when dealing with autocratic importers\, while allowing more flexibility with democratic importers. To test our argument\, we construct an original dataset of termination features in over 2\,500 international investment treaties\, conduct elite interviews with treaty negotiators\, and find supporting evidence for our theory. This study contributes to the understanding of durability in international institutions\, as well as negotiations over economic agreements.\n\nModerator: Federica Genovese\n\nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/huikuri-2024-01-17/
CATEGORIES:season10
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