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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20241120T120000
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SUMMARY:Sarah Brooks (OSU\, presenter)\, Santiago Lacroix Eussler (OSU) and Erik Voeten (Georgetown)\, "Green Transition versus the Environment?: The Politics of Mining for Critical Minerals"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: The energy transition has created a global rush for critical minerals that are indispensable for the manufacturing of “green” technology\, such as electric vehicles\, solar panels\, and wind turbines. Critical minerals are predominantly mined\, however\, on land that is proximate to vulnerable communities\, and in developing countries. The environmental toll imposed by mining thus incurs locally and immediately to such communities\, while the benefits of the green transition are long-term and global. How do citizens in those mineral-rich countries evaluate the complicated trade-offs of mining for critical minerals? Mining projects for green technology inputs have in many instances stalled over public protests related to local environmental damages. We ask to what extent do the global environmental benefits of mining’s contribution to decarbonization offset some of these concerns? Are citizens willing to compensate the (indigenous) communities where mining takes place with a share of the government mining revenue? How do nationalism and geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China affect support for mining projects? We answer these questions using a pre-registered conjoint survey experiment in Argentina\, which is rich in lithium. We find that concerns over local environmental damages are by far the most important attribute that determines preferences\, although a mine’s utility for green technology modestly increases support. Argentine citizens with stronger pro-environmentalist attitudes are more opposed to lithium mining\, but respondents are less willing to redistribute tax revenues to local communities when they are informed that the community is indigenous. Finally\, Argentinians prefer ownership by the national state-owned company (YPF)\, while preferences for Chinese or North American ownership are affected by partisanship\, and consistently opposed to Chinese ownership. \nModerator: Stephen Chaudoin \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/brooks-2024-11-20/
CATEGORIES:season11
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20241016T121500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20241016T134500
DTSTAMP:20260430T142130
CREATED:20240909T195847Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20241003T215123Z
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SUMMARY:Lauren Ferry (Mississippi\, presenter) and Patrick E. Shea (Glasgow)\, Crises and Consequences: The Role of US Support in International Bond Markets
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Sovereign default and restructurings should\, in theory\, lead to creditor punishment through higher borrowing costs or capital market exclusion. However\, empirical evidence shows that punishment is inconsistent and not uniform across defaulters. We argue that this disconnect can be explained by examining the role of geopolitical relationships\, particularly with the United States\, in shaping sovereign credit outcomes. US support conditions the expectations of both borrowers and creditors by providing a fiscal cushion and subsidized insurance. This dynamic incentivizes supported states to engage in riskier financial behavior\, increasing their likelihood of default. Paradoxically\, post-default US support continues to signal a greater ability to pay compared to non-supported states\, reducing creditors’ incentives to punish. Using data on commercial defaults from 1970 to 2012\, we find that states with higher levels of US support are more likely to restructure their debts. After restructuring\, these states face lower borrowing costs and experience shorter periods of exclusion from bond markets. Our findings highlight how international political dynamics shape both the likelihood of default and subsequent market reactions\, contributing to our understanding of the complex interplay between geopolitics and sovereign debt. \nModerator: Maggie Peters \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/ferry-2024-10-16/
CATEGORIES:season11
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20240918T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20240918T131500
DTSTAMP:20260430T142131
CREATED:20240909T195707Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240909T230145Z
UID:1587-1726660800-1726665300@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Didac Queralt (Yale)\, "Her Majesty’s Aid: A Principal–Agent Analysis of Development Assistance in the Late British Empire"
DESCRIPTION:Can foreign aid expand fiscal capacity? Drawing on principal–agent theory\, I argue that foreign aid builds capacity when the interests of the donor and the political leadership of the recipient state are aligned and when aid administrators in the recipient’s bureaucracy face high-powered incentives to exert effort toward the mission’s goal. Using history as a laboratory\, I examine both predictions by studying the impact of the precursor of foreign aid—the Colonial Development & Welfare fund—on tax efforts in 12 British colonies in Africa between 1929 and 1969. Drawing on originally collected data and archival research\, I demonstrate that imperial aid boosted colonial taxation because patronage governors were replaced by career officials who shared Lon- don’s agenda for the colonies; and because meeting the fiscal mandate of the program was incentive-compatible with professional advancement of colonial bureaucrats. The analysis offers practical insights about aid efforts to build capacity in sovereign nations. \n\n\n\nModerator: Cameron Ballard-Rosa \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/queralt-2024-09-18/
CATEGORIES:season11
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