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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260422T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260422T130000
DTSTAMP:20260414T020555Z
CREATED:20260121T180045Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260414T020555Z
UID:1869-1776859200-1776862800@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Junghyun Lim (UNC)\, "Depopulation Paradox? Depopulation Risk and Immigration Policy Preferences"
DESCRIPTION:How does depopulation risk shape individuals’ support for open immigration policies? Depopulation poses growing challenges in developed economies\, including declining tax revenue\, and skills shortages. While immigration is often proposed as a major solution\, it remains unclear whether those most affected are receptive to it. On one hand\, depopulation may boost support for immigration by highlighting its economic benefits. Yet it may also raise concerns among natives about losing majority status and fostering out-group anxiety\, leading to stronger opposition to immigration. I examine this question using a survey experiment in Italy\, a country facing serious depopulation. I find that raising awareness about depopulation risk has little effect on preferences regarding immigration policies\, while significantly increasing support for pro-natalist policies and the repatriation of co-nationals. Among those with strong in-group biases\, depopulation awareness reduces support for immigration. These findings demonstrate a paradox: even as the need for immigration grows\, public support remains limited or declines\, revealing a key challenge in using immigration to mitigate depopulation. \nModerator: Stephen Chaudoin \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/lim-2026-04-22/
CATEGORIES:season14
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260617T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260617T130000
DTSTAMP:20260610T190055Z
CREATED:20260610T190055Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260610T190055Z
UID:1922-1781697600-1781701200@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Theo Serlin (KCL\, presenter) and Hye Young You (Princeton)\, "Protection by Covariance"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Trade policy is the prototypical case of lobbying influence. Despite evidence to the contrary\, most analyses of lobbying on trade assume a quid pro quo model of influence. We examine the implications of the legislative subsidy theory of lobbying for trade policy. We develop a model in which lobbying increases the weight legislators receive in the policymaking process. Industries seeking protection lobby legislators whose districts contain greater industry employment. Consequently\, legislators whose districts contain large industries prone to lobby exert more influence on policy. In equilibrium\, industries that co-locate with other large and lobbying-prone industries receive higher tariffs. We test these predictions using data on US trade policy from 1989 to 2016\, exploiting redistricting-induced shocks to industry co-location. Within-district spillover effects help explain why existing studies estimate small effects of lobbying on trade policy. Lobbying advantages not only large and organized industries\, but also weaker industries that share their locations. \nModerator: Bobby Gulotty \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/serlin-2026-06-17/
CATEGORIES:season15
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260715T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260715T130000
DTSTAMP:20260708T014226Z
CREATED:20260708T002245Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260708T014226Z
UID:1965-1784116800-1784120400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Thomas M. Flaherty (presenter)\, Duy Trinh\, Changlip Kim\, and Olivia Hundley "Commerce and Campaigns: The Local Roots of Globalization  Messaging in US Presidential Speeches"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Issues like trade are often considered too technical and low salience to appear in national debates\, raising questions over the increasing supply of trade messages in campaign speeches. We develop a theoretical framework that explains where and when elites supply trade messages. Incumbent-party candidates avoid trade messages\, even where doing so would win local support\, while challengers use trade messages to strategically inform electorally competitive regions of trade’s local impacts. In aggregate\, a minority of geographies are supplied one-sided trade information campaigns. Using a within-candidate design\, we find empirical support using an original dataset covering all campaign rally speeches by presidential candidates from 2008 to 2024\, which we geocode and analyze with semi-supervised text methods to quantify where presidential campaigns emphasize trade relative to other issues. Our results are robust to exogenous sources of local interests\, pre-trends\, and placebo tests using immigration messages. The findings clarify the supply-side origins of the globalization backlash during the understudied campaign stage. \nModerator: Iain Osgood \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/thomas-m-flaherty/
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260819T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260819T130000
DTSTAMP:20260812T011733Z
CREATED:20260811T232700Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260812T011733Z
UID:1988-1787140800-1787144400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Kexin Bai and Quan Li (presenter) "Navigating Targeted Sanctions: A Real Options Theory of American Firm Responses and Financial Performance"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Do targeted sanctions hurt American firms financially? Existing research offers competing\narguments but little firm-level evidence on financial fundamentals. We shift the debate from\naggregate sender costs to response-conditional performance. Our real options theory shows\nthat partial\, evolving sanctions present firms with binary choices depending on their starting\nposition. Prior suppliers stay or exit; prior non-suppliers enter or stay out. Firms select among these options based on their resources and each option’s expected value\, so response-group performance reflects selection into each path. We test the theory using U.S. Entity List restrictions on Huawei. We examine 545 supplier and peer firms during 2015–2023 with probit and doubly robust difference-in-differences models. Outside options predict exit; financial flexibility predicts entry. Entrants achieve a persistent ROA advantage of 4–5 percentage points. Exiters and stayers show no statistically significant peer-relative underperformance. Treating exposed firms as a single group\, therefore\, obscures response-conditional financial outcomes of targeted sanctions. \nModerator: Rachel Wellhausen \nLink to Paper \nLink to Appendix
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/quan-li/
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