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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260819T120000
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DTSTAMP:20260812T011733Z
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UID:1988-1787140800-1787144400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Kexin Bai and Quan Li (presenter) "Navigating Targeted Sanctions: A Real Options Theory of American Firm Responses and Financial Performance"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Do targeted sanctions hurt American firms financially? Existing research offers competing\narguments but little firm-level evidence on financial fundamentals. We shift the debate from\naggregate sender costs to response-conditional performance. Our real options theory shows\nthat partial\, evolving sanctions present firms with binary choices depending on their starting\nposition. Prior suppliers stay or exit; prior non-suppliers enter or stay out. Firms select among these options based on their resources and each option’s expected value\, so response-group performance reflects selection into each path. We test the theory using U.S. Entity List restrictions on Huawei. We examine 545 supplier and peer firms during 2015–2023 with probit and doubly robust difference-in-differences models. Outside options predict exit; financial flexibility predicts entry. Entrants achieve a persistent ROA advantage of 4–5 percentage points. Exiters and stayers show no statistically significant peer-relative underperformance. Treating exposed firms as a single group\, therefore\, obscures response-conditional financial outcomes of targeted sanctions. \nModerator: Rachel Wellhausen \nLink to Paper \nLink to Appendix
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/quan-li/
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