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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260422T120000
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DTSTAMP:20260613T043351
CREATED:20260121T180045Z
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SUMMARY:Junghyun Lim (UNC)\, "Depopulation Paradox? Depopulation Risk and Immigration Policy Preferences"
DESCRIPTION:How does depopulation risk shape individuals’ support for open immigration policies? Depopulation poses growing challenges in developed economies\, including declining tax revenue\, and skills shortages. While immigration is often proposed as a major solution\, it remains unclear whether those most affected are receptive to it. On one hand\, depopulation may boost support for immigration by highlighting its economic benefits. Yet it may also raise concerns among natives about losing majority status and fostering out-group anxiety\, leading to stronger opposition to immigration. I examine this question using a survey experiment in Italy\, a country facing serious depopulation. I find that raising awareness about depopulation risk has little effect on preferences regarding immigration policies\, while significantly increasing support for pro-natalist policies and the repatriation of co-nationals. Among those with strong in-group biases\, depopulation awareness reduces support for immigration. These findings demonstrate a paradox: even as the need for immigration grows\, public support remains limited or declines\, revealing a key challenge in using immigration to mitigate depopulation. \nModerator: Stephen Chaudoin \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/lim-2026-04-22/
CATEGORIES:season14
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260617T120000
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DTSTAMP:20260613T043351
CREATED:20260610T190055Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260610T190055Z
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SUMMARY:Theo Serlin (KCL\, presenter) and Hye Young You (Princeton)\, "Protection by Covariance"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Trade policy is the prototypical case of lobbying influence. Despite evidence to the contrary\, most analyses of lobbying on trade assume a quid pro quo model of influence. We examine the implications of the legislative subsidy theory of lobbying for trade policy. We develop a model in which lobbying increases the weight legislators receive in the policymaking process. Industries seeking protection lobby legislators whose districts contain greater industry employment. Consequently\, legislators whose districts contain large industries prone to lobby exert more influence on policy. In equilibrium\, industries that co-locate with other large and lobbying-prone industries receive higher tariffs. We test these predictions using data on US trade policy from 1989 to 2016\, exploiting redistricting-induced shocks to industry co-location. Within-district spillover effects help explain why existing studies estimate small effects of lobbying on trade policy. Lobbying advantages not only large and organized industries\, but also weaker industries that share their locations. \nModerator: Bobby Gulotty \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/serlin-2026-06-17/
CATEGORIES:season15
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