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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260715T120000
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DTSTAMP:20260708T014226Z
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UID:1965-1784116800-1784120400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Thomas M. Flaherty (presenter)\, Duy Trinh\, Changlip Kim\, and Olivia Hundley "Commerce and Campaigns: The Local Roots of Globalization  Messaging in US Presidential Speeches"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Issues like trade are often considered too technical and low salience to appear in national debates\, raising questions over the increasing supply of trade messages in campaign speeches. We develop a theoretical framework that explains where and when elites supply trade messages. Incumbent-party candidates avoid trade messages\, even where doing so would win local support\, while challengers use trade messages to strategically inform electorally competitive regions of trade’s local impacts. In aggregate\, a minority of geographies are supplied one-sided trade information campaigns. Using a within-candidate design\, we find empirical support using an original dataset covering all campaign rally speeches by presidential candidates from 2008 to 2024\, which we geocode and analyze with semi-supervised text methods to quantify where presidential campaigns emphasize trade relative to other issues. Our results are robust to exogenous sources of local interests\, pre-trends\, and placebo tests using immigration messages. The findings clarify the supply-side origins of the globalization backlash during the understudied campaign stage. \nModerator: Iain Osgood \nLink to PDF
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/thomas-m-flaherty/
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260819T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260819T130000
DTSTAMP:20260812T011733Z
CREATED:20260811T232700Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260812T011733Z
UID:1988-1787140800-1787144400@gripe.polisci.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Kexin Bai and Quan Li (presenter) "Navigating Targeted Sanctions: A Real Options Theory of American Firm Responses and Financial Performance"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Do targeted sanctions hurt American firms financially? Existing research offers competing\narguments but little firm-level evidence on financial fundamentals. We shift the debate from\naggregate sender costs to response-conditional performance. Our real options theory shows\nthat partial\, evolving sanctions present firms with binary choices depending on their starting\nposition. Prior suppliers stay or exit; prior non-suppliers enter or stay out. Firms select among these options based on their resources and each option’s expected value\, so response-group performance reflects selection into each path. We test the theory using U.S. Entity List restrictions on Huawei. We examine 545 supplier and peer firms during 2015–2023 with probit and doubly robust difference-in-differences models. Outside options predict exit; financial flexibility predicts entry. Entrants achieve a persistent ROA advantage of 4–5 percentage points. Exiters and stayers show no statistically significant peer-relative underperformance. Treating exposed firms as a single group\, therefore\, obscures response-conditional financial outcomes of targeted sanctions. \nModerator: Rachel Wellhausen \nLink to Paper \nLink to Appendix
URL:https://gripe.polisci.ucla.edu/event/quan-li/
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