How does depopulation risk shape individuals’ support for open immigration policies? Depopulation poses growing challenges in developed economies, including declining tax revenue, and skills shortages. While immigration is often proposed as a major solution, it remains unclear whether those most affected are receptive to it. On one hand, depopulation may boost support for immigration by highlighting its economic benefits. Yet it may also raise concerns among natives about losing majority status and fostering out-group anxiety, leading to stronger opposition to immigration. I examine this question using a survey experiment in Italy, a country facing serious depopulation. I find that raising awareness about depopulation risk has little effect on preferences regarding immigration policies, while significantly increasing support for pro-natalist policies and the repatriation of co-nationals. Among those with strong in-group biases, depopulation awareness reduces support for immigration. These findings demonstrate a paradox: even as the need for immigration grows, public support remains limited or declines, revealing a key challenge in using immigration to mitigate depopulation.
Moderator: Stephen Chaudoin